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By Kristin Myers, Editor-in-Chief

What's Happening Today

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated the central bank's commitment to fighting inflation in a speech this morning, saying the Fed was "acutely" focused on getting the annual rate of consumer inflation down to the Fed's 2% long-term target.

Stocks have been on a roller-coaster ride over the past several weeks amid concerns about inflation and the Fed's ability to fight it. Because higher interest rates slow economic growth, fears of a recession started to grow again earlier this week after the Fed hiked interest rates by 75 basis points.

And more worrying economic data was released today. Factory production in the U.S. dropped by 0.1% for the first time in months, as inflation and supply chain challenges impact manufacturing.

But is the United States headed for a recession? More than two-thirds of economists surveyed by the Financial Times earlier this month said they expect a recession sometime in 2023, while 30% think it could be 2024 or later before the next major downturn.

Recessions usually bring higher rates of unemployment, lower wages, and other economic pains, and there is no guarantee how long a recession—if it does happen—will last.

To prepare for the possibility of an economic downturn, it's a good idea to start increasing emergency savings, and to pay off any high-interest debt. And if you are worried about your personal finances, it might be better to reconsider making any big purchases like a home or a car, in case you won't be able to afford the payments later.

- Kristin

Editors' Picks

Powell Says Fed 'Acutely Focused' on Returning Inflation to 2% (Bloomberg)

How Does the Fed Funds Rate Work, and What Is Its Impact? (The Balance)

Empty Shelves? Long Waits? Blame the Labor Shortage (The Balance)

What to Watch as the Tightest Job Market in Decades Starts to Loosen (The Wall Street Journal)

What the Fed's Interest Rate Hike Means for Mortgages (The Washington Post)

Amid Record Inflation, 36% of Employees Earning $100,000 or More Say They Are Living Paycheck to Paycheck (CNBC)

How To Buy Series I Bonds for a Portfolio (The Balance)

Off the Charts

The down payment for a conventional loan can depend on how much a home's value is, how much you can afford, and whether the loan is conforming or nonconforming. Although 20% is often suggested for a minimum down payment, it's not a requirement. You can put as much down as you'd like, or as little as 3%, depending on your lender and the loan. Using our mortgage calculator, here's what the difference looks like for a borrower with a good credit score and a 30-year fixed mortgage for homes at different price points—$250,000, $500,000, and $900,000.

Number of the Day

4.1% - That's how little the price of Bitcoin has increased over its pre-pandemic peak in 2017, showing the recent cryptocurrency boom has mostly petered out.