To view this email as a web page, click here.

By Kristin Myers, Editor-in-Chief

What's Happening Today

Good morning! It's Kristin with your daily morning digest.

Stocks are falling as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note edged higher, but so did the two-year yield, resulting in an inverted yield curve before the 10-year note pulled ahead. The inverted yield curve (when the yields on short-term bonds are higher than ones for long-term bonds) remains a reliable recession indicator, as investors forecast that the economy will be better in the long term than it in the short term, and are "rewarded" for taking on the near-term risk with higher yields.

But when will a recession come? According to former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers and Harvard University economist Alex Domash, history tells us that it could happen by the end of next year. Since 1955, every time the average quarterly wage inflation rate was above 5% and the average quarterly unemployment rate was below 5%, a recession happened within two years.

Oil prices have also continued to rise, signaling potential increases in gas prices for consumers only just beginning to see a little relief from the planned release of oil from strategic reserves.

And be sure to tune in today at 3 p.m. Eastern as I kick off Financial Literacy Month with an Instagram Live conversation with producer, speaker, and financial influencer Berna Anat on where to begin your personal finance journey!

- Kristin

Editors' Picks

The US Economy Is Booming. So Why Are Economists Worrying About a Recession? (The New York Times)

Home Prices Rise at Record Pace—Again (The Balance)

Suddenly Short of Workers, US Is Forced to Rethink Job Credentials (Bloomberg)

Biden To Propose Change to Affordable Care Act To Extend Subsidies for Families (The Wall Street Journal)

Here's Where To File Your Taxes for Free—for Real (The Balance)

What To Know About Reporting Crypto, NFTs to IRS: Expert (Yahoo Finance)

Best Robo-Advisors of 2022 (The Balance)

Can You Get a Mortgage Without a Job? (The Balance)

Off the Charts

Mortgage rates rocketed up, hitting new highs since at least 2019 and reversing last week's declines. The average rate offered to homebuyers using a conventional 30-year fixed mortgage jumped to 5.31% from 5.11%, while the average rate for the 15-year leapt to 4.34% from 4.21%, hitting their highest in more than two years.

Number of the Day

100% - That's how much of the time the economy has fallen into recession when jobs have been this good and pay increases this hot, according to an influential economist.

April is Financial Literacy Month, and The Balance is going on IG live in a series dedicated to your personal finance journey. Join The Balance Editor-in-Chief Kristin Myers with special guests throughout the month of April. Our first IG live event is on April 5 at 3 p.m. EST with Berna Anat, producer, speaker and fin-fluencer. Follow us on Instagram to get updates on The Balance's live events this month!

How can we improve The Balance Today newsletter? Tell us at newsletters@thebalance.com.