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By Kristin Myers, Editor-in-Chief

What's Happening Today

Good morning! It's Kristin with your daily morning digest.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its highly anticipated outlook for world economic growth today, projecting that "worldwide spillovers" from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war will slow global economic growth. The IMF expects global growth to slow down to 3.6% this year and in 2023, a drop of nearly 1 percentage point from earlier estimates. A global slowdown would impact the U.S., with some economists suggesting a recession could hit the U.S. by next year. Analysts at Goldman Sachs suggest there's a 15% chance of the U.S entering into a recession in the next 12 months, and a 35% chance that it could happen within the next two years. A recession could cause financial hardships for many Americans who took nearly a decade to recover from the 2007-2009 Great Recession.

Many U.S. consumers are already feeling the impacts of higher inflation, as just about everything, from food to housing, has become more costly. However, in a bright spot for the U.S. housing market, the Census Bureau reported this morning that new construction, or housing starts, rose 0.3% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.79 million—the strongest rate since 2006, according to economists at Oxford Economics. A greater supply of available housing could help bring down home prices and cool America's red hot housing market. Building permits, used as an early indicator of housing construction, rose more than expected by 0.4% in March to 1.87 million.

Join us today at 12 noon Eastern for The Balance's second Financial Literacy Month Instagram Live series, where we'll discuss the topic of building (generational) wealth. I'll be talking with Kara Stevens, finance coach, speaker, and author. Follow us on Instagram to get updates on The Balance's live events this month!

- Kristin

Editors' Picks

IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Over Ukraine War (The Guardian)

E-Filers Get Refunds in a Week, Taxpayer Advocate Says (The Balance)

US Stocks See Biggest Outflows of Year as Recession Fears Bite (Bloomberg)

There Is a 35% Chance of a Recession in 2 Years: Goldman Sachs (Yahoo Finance)

What Is a Business Debt Schedule and How Do You Create One? (The Balance)

6 Strategies To Make the Most of Your Roth IRA (The Balance)

How Much Money Do You Need To Be Happy? (The Balance)

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Off the Charts

The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage jumped to 6.19% Friday—its highest rate since at least 2019, according to data collected by The Balance.

Number of the Day

11 - That's how few days it took for the average 30-year mortgage rate to leap more than a full percentage point, showing how quickly home affordability is eroding.

For The Balance's second Financial Literacy Month IG live series, we're discussing the topic of building (generational) wealth. Join our Editor-in-Chief, Kristin Myers with featured guest Kara Stevens, finance coach, speaker and author. The event is on Tuesday, April 19 at 12 p.m. EST. Follow us on Instagram to get updates on The Balance's live events this month!

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